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Why Synergies Run Late, And How to Forecast Them Realistically
Synergies typically take longer than planned because they are estimated on theoretical potential rather than organisational feasibility, and the first delay is rarely built into the plan, leaving the schedule with no slack for the setback that almost always shows up somewhere. Deal models tend to assume synergies execute cleanly once the deal closes; the reality of combining two organisations' systems, people, and processes is rarely that clean.
The gap between theoretical and organisational feasibility
A synergy that looks straightforward on a spreadsheet, combine two procurement functions, consolidate two systems, often depends on dozens of smaller organisational decisions that were never modelled: whose process wins, which contracts need renegotiating, who owns the combined function. Each of those is a small delay; together they add up to a large one.
What a realistic synergy baseline actually contains
A source, owner, timeline, and testable assumption for every synergy, maintained on a fixed review cadence rather than revisited only when someone asks. The testable assumption matters most, it's what lets you say, at any point, exactly what would have to be true for the synergy to still be on track.
How to build in the delay everyone knows is coming
Rather than pretending no delay will happen, build a deliberate buffer into the timeline for at least the largest two or three synergies, and name in advance what would trigger using it. This produces a more credible forecast than a clean timeline nobody actually believes.
The Deal Thesis Told You Where the Value Was. Did Anyone Translate That Into What Actually Has to Change?
We turn the deal thesis into a Day 1 plan, a Day 100 plan, and an integration office that protects the value you paid for, including the people who carry it.